Review: The Hot Topic

As promised, here is my review of The Hot Topic. My apologies for the delay. I had to read the book twice to make sure that I digest its essence.

But first, allow me to share my personal context on the global warming issue. I have never read any non-fiction book on global warming prior to The Hot Topic. Ironically, the only book I've read about global warming is the controversial novel, The State of Fear by Michael Crichton. However, after reading Crichton's novel, my curiosity peaked. Crichton raised my awareness on the very issue that he tried to debunk. Since then I've devoted some of my time looking at the spectrum of debates on global warming. I've read countless news articles on the Web, watched debates, documentaries, and interviews, and skimmed the IPCC Reports. In short, I did my best to understand this issue from an environmental, technological, geopolitical, economics, and even religious and spiritual perspectives, all the while sharing my explorations on my blog (hint: search this blog for "global warming" or "climate change"; see also my bookmarks on global-warming and climate-change).

In my curiosity to understand global warming, along the way I also learned that there is a massive disinformation effort to cause confusion on the issue, not to mention ignorance, delusion, denial, and outright hysteria brought about by doomsday scenarios perpetrated by movies and mainstream media. This is not surprising. I find it kind of funny. I find it kind of sad. Our competing values, political ideologies, self-interests, and psycho-social stages of development put our collective in a state of cognitive dissonance causing leaders and policymakers to delay or sabotage appropriate actions based on the best scientific information we've got. From this perspective, we really are living in a "Mad World."

Now on to the book review...

The Hot Topic - How to Tackle Global Warming and Still Keep the Lights On is one of the latest books on global warming. In fact, as of this writing it's not yet released in the U.S. (April 2008 is the scheduled release). Fortunately, I'm in Ireland right now so I was able to pick up a copy. One of the reasons I decided to read the book was that it was highly recommended by Chris Mooney (one of the ScienceBloggers I regularly read). The other reason is that the authors of the book, Dr. Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King, are both scientists with impeccable credentials. They are both experts on climate science. In fact, Sir David King is one of the central figures on the subject of climate change. He served as Chief Scientific Adviser in the U.K. and was very influential in making the U.K. a leader on climate change policies. So I thought, why not get first-hand information on climate change from those people who understand it rather than depend on the interpretation of journalists and politicians who have an "axe to grind"? A no-brainer.

The book is divided into three parts. Part I (The Problem) explained global warming issue in plain and easy-to-understand language. It addressed the common myths, misconceptions, and areas of contention among climate scientists. It presented uncontested evidences as well as the unknowns in the current state of climate science. But the general conclusion is this:

"Human activity is to blame for the rise in temperature over recent decades, and will be responsible for more changes in the future. There are plenty of areas for debate in the global warming story but this is not one of them. If anybody tells you differently they either have a vested interest in ignoring the scientific arguments or they are fools." (p. 37)

Take note that this conclusion is not based on the "consensus" of scientists. This is what the available scientific evidence suggests. So from the perspective of climate science, Al Gore's presentation on the movie An Inconvenient Truth is spot on. Whether we agree with Gore's environmental ideology or not, there's no denying that Gore had done his homework on the climate change issue. Gore's passion is backed by solid science. The man deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, and our collective intellectual respect.

That said, thanks to the progress of climate science in recent years, the book presented an even more alarming scenario.

"All evidence suggests that the world will experience significant and potentially highly dangerous changes in climate change over the next few decades no matter what we do now.

"That's because the ocean has a built-in lag. It takes time to heat up.... The same principle applies to global warming, but on a longer timescale: because the oceans gradually soak up the heat generated by the extra greenhouse gases, the full effect won't be felt for decades to centuries." (p. 53)

So that's the bad news. Not to mention other climate wildcards that could possibly be triggered by various feedbacks and unknowns that scientists were unable to take into consideration into global climate models (GCMs).

In short, the latest scientific findings and evidence not only solidify the global warming problem and put to rest the argument that humanity's addiction to fossil fuels is not to blame, but they also show that previous studies and reports (such as the IPCC) proved to be conservative. Global warming has arrived on our doorstep. From the perspective of climate science, humanity ought to take Samuel L. Jackson's advice. "Hold onto your butts."

But fear not. All hope is not lost. Our generation can still curb the effects of global warming provided that we act now, and fast. However, a big part of the moral responsibility and leadership rest on the shoulders of developed nations.

"The climate change that is already in the pipeline will hit hardest those countries that are least equipped to deal with it -- and that have been least responsible for releasing the emissions that caused the problem in the first place. Because of this, we believe that developed countries have a moral responsibility to help the developing world cope with the coming damage." (p. 70)

"Our generation is the last to have the chance of averting the worst of these scenarios. All we need is the right combination of new technologies, and economic, political, and social will." (p. 86)

So that's the problem in a nutshell. Very gloomy, but still hopeful.

As a technology junkie, Part II (Technological Solutions) is what I enjoyed reading the most. Personally, I'm tired of all the lemon-eating debates on global warming. I already understand that the problem is real and we're a big contributor to it. What I'm really interested in is how we're gonna pull together to adapt and avoid the catastrophic effects of droughts, rising sea levels, pollution, environmental degradation, with or without the fear of climate change. I believe that accelerating technology will be our "easy" collective salvation from this mess. The bigger issue is our collective political and social will to take action. Technology is rapidly accelerating, but politics, coupled with self-interests and warring ideologies, hinder economic solutions and the technological acceleration.

However, in order to take action, it is imperative that we know what to shoot for. And here's what the authors said.

"The very serious problem, which few people appear yet to have noticed, is that it’s now almost certainly impossible to restrict warming to 2°C. If we had started two decades ago we would have had a good chance. But now, that target looks increasingly out of range." (p. 95)

Therefore, according to the authors, climate change policies should be updated and it should include adaptations, along with cutting CO2 emissions and technological solutions (i.e. renewable energy sources). When it comes to thresholds, the authors strongly suggest to update the current policies with 450 ppm CO2eq as the magic number.

"...we believe the only choice we have is to keep greenhouse gases at the lowest level we can possible get to. In other words, we have to go for 450 ppm CO2eq. This is the number to look for in every policy statement, and every climate agreement. Note that this number is lower than many climate policies that were set in motion in the past decade — including that of the UK. The reason for this is that the latest science tells us that our earlier estimates were too optimistic." (p. 98)

With the target greenhouse emissions threshold in mind, the authors broke down the solutions into manageable chunks, called " wedges." And therein lies the good news. We can still curb greenhouse gases with technologies that are *already* available (i.e. hydroenergy, geothermal, bioenergy, nuclear power, wind energy, solar energy, carbon capture and storage, and nuclear fusion). No need to wait for breakthrough technologies such as fusion or solar-powered generators. (Note: See this extract from the book for a more detailed explanation of the "wedges" strategy for reducing future greenhouse emissions.)

However, in the topic of automobiles, although the authors favored all-electric vehicles, I find it lacking that they didn't mention Tesla Motors -- the company making waves with its fully electric Tesla Roadster. There was also no mention of Zero Pollution Motors' Air Car. Also, die-hard environmentalists would very likely object to the inclusion of nuclear energy as part of the solution. But here's what the authors have to say about their stance on nuclear power.

"If your gut instinct is to react against nuclear power, do consider the arguments here very carefully. Individual and community support will be vital for new nuclear power stations to go ahead, and the problem of climate change will require us all to make some very hard choices. ...nuclear power is one of the very few low-carbon technologies that are already on hand, and although it is not necessarily and ideal way to make energy, the dangers of climate change are certainly far worse." (p. 143)

And finally, in Part III (Political Solutions) the authors discussed the economic and political aspects of climate change, as well as our individual responsibilities and roles on how to put pressure from below to ensure that our politicians are taking the right actions. In this section, the authors took the readers around the world to show that most of the developed nations (i.e. European Union--UK, France, Germany, Russian Federation, Canada, Japan) and rapidly developing nations (i.e. China, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, India) have already committed to reducing their greenhouse emissions. However --

"Though the rest of the world is not sitting on its hands, the new global treaty will have little chance of success until and unless the U.S. takes a position of responsibility and global leadership on the issue of climate change." (p. 217)

At this point in the book, as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (per head of the population), no wonder the U.S. (specifically the GW Bush administration) had been criticized not only for its lack of political will, but also for its apparent attempts at suppressing climate scientists and undermining post-Kyoto treaties (i.e. putting pressure on Australia not to ratify, disinformation campaigns against climate change, and business ties of key government officials with fossil fuel industries). As an American citizen, I find this both shameful and disturbing. Thankfully, with the current popularity of the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and even the more open attitude of Republican candidate John McCain, the result of the 2008 U.S. Presidential election would almost certainly turn the tide in favor of a much more progressive stance on climate change. And that is something to hope for.

In conclusion, this book had masterfully condensed all the information I've gathered on global warming so far. At the same time, it raised my awareness on the technological, economic, and political solutions and that are *already* on their way. But most importantly, it put the global warming problem, not in a doomsday, but in a rather more selfless and long view perspective.

"Whatever we do today to reduce emissions will matter for our children's generation and beyond, but not for our own. The problem of climate change is one of legacy." (p. 54)

Don't get lost in the avalanche of information, misinformation, and lemon-eating debates on the internet and mainstream media. Read The Hot Topic, and then proceed from there. The book delivers on its promise: "Everything you need to know about the challenge of climate change without the spin." Whether you're skeptical of global warming or not, you owe it to yourself to understand the science, the technologies, the economics, and the politics of this very important issue of our time.

See extracts from the book, The Hot Topic, at http://www.thehottopic.net